SoFi Is Getting Crushed Again. Here's the Truth

Couch Investor•May 13, 2026

Summary

Couch Investor examines the 'worst-case scenario' for SoFi, noting that the stock is down over 44% year-to-date despite robust business growth. He highlights a shift in market expectations where the probability of interest rate hikes is increasing due to hotter-than-expected PPI and CPI data, which has pressured the fintech sector. However, he maintains that the underlying businesses are thriving, specifically pointing out that high rates bolster net interest income for companies with significant cash balances or lending operations.

He provides a deep dive into valuation models, suggesting that the current market pessimism ignores management's consistent guidance and the company's ability to remain profitable even without rate cuts. He dismisses the 'broken stock' narrative, focusing instead on long-term compounding and the intrinsic value of the businesses compared to their current share prices.

SoFi (SOFI): Couch Investor highlights that the business grew adjusted net revenue by 41% year-over-year with record loan originations of $12.2 billion and a 35% increase in members. He emphasizes that the net interest margin remains healthy above 5%, which serves as a tailwind in a high-rate environment. Based on his DCF analysis, he identifies a base case price target of $25 per share and a bull case of $36, suggesting that even a conservative bear case offers over 51% upside.

Robinhood (HOOD): Couch Investor notes that Robinhood shares a similar trajectory to SoFi, benefiting from higher-for-longer interest rates through increased net interest revenue, which grew 23.7% year-over-year. While crypto revenue remains a point of weakness, he argues that the overall business segments are improving and the company is making significant money from its cash positions. He views the stock's 33.4% year-to-date decline as a potential value opportunity driven by broader fintech sentiment rather than fundamental failure.

NVIDIA (NVDA): Referred to as 'Nebius' in the transcript, Couch Investor celebrates the stock's recent performance after it closed near $207 per share. He believes the growth story for the company is not over and manages his position by selling covered calls to generate income. He specifically mentions playing a $220 strike price for options expiring at the end of the week, indicating a bullish yet strategic approach to holding the shares.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: The author (referring to the stock as 'Nebius' in the transcript) is highly satisfied with the performance reaching $207. He explicitly mentions being a shareholder and using a strategy of selling covered calls with a strike price of $220 to capitalize on the upward trend, asserting that the company's journey is far from over.

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SOFI

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor believes the stock is significantly undervalued despite the 44% YTD drop. He cites 41% revenue growth, record loan originations, and a healthy net interest margin above 5% as key strengths. His DCF analysis yields a base case price target of $25 and a bull case of $36, stating that patient investors will be rewarded as the business continues to compound.

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HOOD

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor notes that high interest rates are a major positive for Robinhood's net interest revenue, which grew 23.7% year-over-year. He argues that the business is making a lot of money despite weakness in the crypto segment. He views the current price levels as a potential value play for those looking past short-term market noise.

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