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The Biggest Opportunity Hiding in the Most Hated Stocks Right Now

Couch Investor•May 15, 2026

Summary

Couch Investor observes a market shift where AI and semiconductor stocks are taking a breather while software and cybersecurity names are gaining momentum. He emphasizes a strategy of taking profits from high-flying names like AMD and Micron and rotating into undervalued quality companies that have been overlooked by the market. He believes that macroeconomic factors like high interest rates are weighing on high-growth names, but quality businesses will eventually rebalance as they continue to report strong results.

Couch Investor provides specific analyses for several companies:

Nu Holdings (NU): The stock is down despite record revenues and profitability in Mexico because the market focuses on short-term investment cycles. Couch Investor highlights the record-low efficiency ratio of 17.6% and believes the company will eventually exceed a $100 billion valuation. He explicitly added to his position today, viewing the short-term dip as an opportunity for long-term dominance.
dLocal (DLO): Despite impressive TPV growth of 73% and 55% revenue growth, the stock is struggling due to declining take rates and a pushed-out operating leverage timeline to 2026. Couch Investor maintains confidence in the business, noting the 152% net retention rate and strong performance across travel and other verticals. He expects margins to improve in the second half of the year as the investment cycle nears its end and would not sell even at $20.
Shopify (SHOP): Based on a DCF analysis, the stock is currently 'less expensive' rather than 'cheap,' with a probability-weighted fair value of around $94.6. Couch Investor sees significant upside in a bull case scenario of $136 if the company maintains high growth and expands EBIT margins to 28% by 2035. He remains patient, looking for a potential entry point in the low $80s for more aggressive accumulation.
Axon (AXON): The stock is trading near its 200-day moving average and remains a high-quality name that is rarely cheap. Couch Investor's DCF analysis suggests a bull case upside of 37.1% if the software segment continues to grow as a percentage of the business mix, driving higher margins. He considers the current $400 level a watchpoint, noting that AI enhances rather than replaces the company's ecosystem of hardware and software.

Mentioned Stocks

META
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor calls Meta 'the Google of 2025' and believes it is completely misunderstood by the market. He views it as a great opportunity for long-term investors at current prices around $616 per share.

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AMD
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: While Couch Investor owns the stock, he is not willing to chase it at current levels. He prefers to see consistent red days or a significant drop before buying more, as the stock has already performed very well recently.

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SHOP
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor sees Shopify as a great company that is currently 'less expensive' but not yet 'cheap.' His DCF analysis yields a probability-weighted value of $94.6, with a bull case target of $136 based on high growth and 28% EBIT margins. He suggests the low $80s as a superior entry point.

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AXON
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: The creator likes the high-quality nature of Axon and its growing software mix. His DCF bull case shows 37.1% upside from the current price of $400. He notes that AI makes the Axon ecosystem better and the company is currently trading near its 200-day moving average.

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NU
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Couch Investor explicitly stated he added more to his position today. He highlights strong fundamentals including 42% revenue growth, profitability in Mexico, and a record-low efficiency ratio of 17.6%. He believes the company is a future $100 billion plus business.

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DLO
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Despite margin pressure, Couch Investor is bullish due to 73% TPV growth and 152% net retention. He views the market's reaction to the extended investment cycle as a short-term hurdle and expects a margin inflection in the second half of 2024. He stated he wouldn't sell even if it reached $20.

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