I Valued Every Stock In My $1.3 Million Portfolio

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Mar 4, 2026

Summary

Joseph provides a comprehensive review of his $1.3 million portfolio, emphasizing that valuation is the key to identifying the best 'buys.' His methodology involves two parts: historical analysis of valuation multiples (P/E, Price to Free Cash Flow, Price to Sales) and forward-looking Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models. He aims for a 15% annual return, which doubles capital every five years, and uses this 'hurdle rate' to determine if a stock is a buy or a hold. Joseph notes a recent 'SaaS apocalypse' and AI-related fears that have compressed valuations for high-quality software and financial companies, creating what he views as significant entry opportunities.

Meta (META): Joseph recently made a $160,000 investment, noting it is historically cheap outside of the 2022 anomaly. He believes the disruption risk from AI is low and projects a 20.3% annual return, stating it remains a buy up to $840.

Amazon (AMZN): Despite concerns over rising CapEx, Joseph remains bullish due to advertising growth and potential operating margin expansion. He estimates a nearly 20% annual return and considers anything under $266 a good entry point, with a price prediction above $300.

ASML (ASML): While acknowledging the company's technological supremacy and 10-year lead, Joseph views the current valuation as expensive. His projections yield a 13% return, which is below his 15% hurdle rate, leading him to classify it as a hold.

Costco (COST): Joseph describes Costco as a 'perfect business' but highlights that its valuation multiples have doubled or tripled over the last decade. With a projected return of only 6-9%, he considers the stock significantly overvalued at current prices.

Duolingo (DUOL): Currently his worst-performing position, Joseph still views it as undervalued due to its potential for user growth and earnings acceleration. He expects a 17% annual return based on a 20% EPS growth assumption.

Google (GOOGL): Joseph sees Google as being at 'fair value' following a recovery from the ChatGPT-induced sell-off. He believes the company is an earnings machine and expects a 15% return if the stock trades at a 27x multiple.

Intuit (INTU): Following a steep dive in valuation due to broader software sector fears, Joseph claims Intuit is at its cheapest level in 10 years. He projects a 20% return, assuming AI fears fade and multiples normalize.

Mastercard (MA): Joseph has been actively adding to this position, citing its wide moat and high margins. He calculates a 17% annual return based on its current trend of becoming cheaper relative to historical multiples.

Moody's (MCO): Joseph argues that AI will not disrupt the credit rating moat and views the recent sell-off as an opportunity. He expects the P/E multiple to expand back to 36x, providing a healthy long-term return.

Microsoft (MSFT): Joseph considers Microsoft undervalued after recent valuation compression. He projects a 17-20% return, noting that one would have to assume very pessimistic growth rates to make the stock look like a bad investment.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph sees strong operating leverage and growth in ads and Prime. He estimates a 20% annual return and believes the stock is a buy up to $266, with a long-term price target above $300.

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