The Worst Case Scenario Just Happened

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Mar 9, 2026

Summary

Joseph provides a deep dive into the current geopolitical crisis involving the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil demand passes. He notes that crude oil has spiked toward $100 per barrel due to Iranian threats, creating a 'doomsday scenario' for energy markets that could lead to significant global inflation. While analysts like Mohamed El-Erian are skeptical of a quick recovery, Joseph advises against fear-based investing, emphasizing that macro disruptions often provide the best entries for long-term holders.

Beyond the oil crisis, Joseph discusses the legal battle between AI startup Anthropic and the Trump administration regarding its blacklist status. He also highlights Netflix's strategic acquisition of Ben Affleck’s AI company, Interpositive, which focuses on fine-tuned filmmaking tools. Joseph concludes by reiterating his strategy of staying fully invested in businesses with strong fundamentals, regardless of short-term macro fluctuations.

Meta (META): Joseph has recently established a new, large position in Meta and has been actively buying more as the stock trades down. He believes the company is unaffected by the current geopolitical events and intends to continue adding to his position if the price continues to drop. Joseph views this as a prime example of leaning into great companies when others are fearful.

Amazon (AMZN): Joseph explicitly identifies Amazon as a buy at current levels, projecting 20% compounded annual returns over the next five years. He acknowledges that while rising oil prices might impact short-term shipping costs, the long-term growth of AWS and Amazon's retail dominance remain intact. He considers the current market sell-off an attractive entry point for a company that will thrive for decades.

Netflix (NFLX): Joseph argues that Netflix is one of the most antifragile companies in existence and should be bought during this dip. He notes that when consumers cut back on travel and expensive discretionary spending, they turn to low-cost entertainment like Netflix, which trades below $100 per share. He believes the stock is mispriced by the market as a standard discretionary item when it actually serves as a beneficiary of economic stress.

Microsoft (MSFT): Joseph considers Microsoft a buy today and states he would be adding shares if his position weren't already so large. He views the company as a high-quality asset that remains robust regardless of the energy crisis. Joseph advises investors to ignore the noise and focus on the company's long-term technological leadership.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph identifies Amazon as a buy, expecting 20% compounded returns over the next 5 years. He argues that despite higher oil prices affecting shipping, AWS and the core retail business are too well-positioned to ignore during this market decline.

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