Don’t Make This Huge Mistake

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Mar 30, 2026

Summary

Joseph presents a thesis that we are currently at a market bottom, driven by extreme fear and hedge fund capitulation. He notes that his own portfolio is down $100,000 year-to-date, but he views this as a necessary 'pain' to achieve high long-term returns. He uses data points such as high put volume (exceeding 8 million) and the fact that only 19.8% of companies are trading above their 200-day moving average to suggest that stocks are technically oversold. Joseph emphasizes that while the media focuses on geopolitical tensions with Iran, history shows such events rarely have a lasting impact on U.S. stock prices compared to domestic economic health.

Joseph also critiques OpenAI's strategic direction, calling the Sora video model a 'misstep' that led to uninspiring 'AI slop' while burning millions in cash. He contrasts this with Anthropic's Claude, which focused on high-value B2B automation. Furthermore, he defends Netflix against political criticism regarding price hikes, arguing that the service remains the best value in streaming when measured by content spend per dollar and consumer watch hours.

Meta (META): Joseph is aggressively adding to this position and recently bought an additional $4,000 worth of shares. He acknowledges the position is currently in the red, but he believes the stock is trading at a significant discount to its growth potential. He maintains that every purchase at these levels will eventually result in significant gains.

Microsoft (MSFT): Joseph describes Microsoft as a high-quality company that has been 'gutted' by the recent market sell-off. The stock is currently trading at its absolute 52-week low, which Joseph views as an entry point for a premier business. He highlights that tech valuations like Microsoft's have reset to much more attractive multiples despite rising earnings.

Netflix (NFLX): Joseph defends the company's pricing power and its increasing content budget, which is set to reach $20 billion by 2026. He points out that Netflix is actually a better value today than it was a decade ago when adjusted for the amount of content available to users. Despite the price increases, it remains the cheapest streaming service per hour of consumption.

S&P Global (SPGI): This stock is currently trading 28% off its 52-week high and is near its yearly low. Joseph includes it in the category of 'elite' businesses that are being sold off regardless of their strong fundamentals. He views this decoupling of price and earnings as a classic buying opportunity for patient investors.

Summary

Mentioned Stocks