This Week Could Be A Disaster
Summary
Joseph bietet einen umfassenden Ausblick auf eine außergewöhnliche Berichtssaison, in der die Marktschwergewichte Google, Microsoft, Amazon und Meta am selben Mittwochabend ihre Ergebnisse vorlegen werden. Er betont, dass der Fokus der Wall Street auf der Rentabilität der massiven KI-Investitionen liegen wird. Joseph analysiert die Dynamik zwischen Cloud-Anbietern und stellt fest, dass OpenAI seine Exklusivität bei Microsoft verloren hat, was Amazon nun ermöglicht, diese Modelle über Bedrock anzubieten.
Ein zentrales Thema ist Josephs Widerlegung der Erzählung, dass KI Arbeitsplätze vernichtet. Er nutzt historische Daten, um zu zeigen, dass Unternehmen wie Microsoft und Snap lediglich Personalüberhänge abbauen, die durch das übermäßige Wachstum im Jahr 2022 entstanden sind. Er sieht darin eine Taktik des Managements, operative Fehler als technologische Effizienzsteigerungen umzudeuten. Darüber hinaus behandelt er den Rechtsstreit zwischen Elon Musk und OpenAI und prognostiziert, dass Musk bereits durch die Rufschädigung von Sam Altman vor dem möglichen Börsengang von OpenAI gewonnen hat.
Zu den besprochenen Aktien gehören:
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Despite the stock price being at $262 after a 30% monthly run-up, Joseph believes the stock is still a buy long term. He notes the massive $15 billion annual run rate for AWS AI services and predicts that retail margins and free cash flow will eventually exceed $100 billion.
Reasoning: Joseph is bullish and expects high 20% growth. He believes Meta's heavy AI Capex is worth it as it improves ad conversion and user engagement across its platforms.
Reasoning: Joseph remains bullish on Microsoft as a core holding but notes it faces risks as OpenAI models are no longer exclusive. He predicts the stock might trade at a forward PE of 22-23 for some time before heading back up to 27.
Reasoning: Joseph describes Google as a fantastic company and maintains it as a 15% position in his portfolio. He is bullish on Google Cloud's 35% growth, the company's vertical integration of TPUs, and the long-term potential of Waymo.
Reasoning: Joseph views Apple as a consumer staple that has been 'asleep at the wheel' regarding AI. He criticizes them for sacrificing technological advantages to maintain current margins.
Reasoning: Joseph believes Robinhood is a good bet because of its aggressive expansion into new financial products and its understanding of its core demographic.
Reasoning: Joseph explicitly states that Spotify is a buy today. He highlights its trajectory toward 1 billion users, its sticky platform with a 70% return rate for lapsed users, and its successful integration of AI features like AI DJs and playlists.
Reasoning: Joseph owns a large position but notes the stock has struggled due to fears of AI disruption from Claude. He is monitoring if management can prove the resilience of their market intelligence business.