i just took a huge L

Jeremy Lefebvre Makes Money•Apr 3, 2026

Summary

Jeremy addresses the psychological and strategic approach to managing a large losing position, specifically his $104,000 decline in Nike stock. He emphasizes that as an investor's portfolio grows, the scale of both wins and losses increases, and he views the current situation as part of the 'game' of long-term investing. His main thesis is that Nike is undergoing a classic turnaround, comparing it to previous 'hated' stocks like Meta at $88, Tesla during the Model 3 ramp, and Palantir at its lows. He believes the current market sentiment is overly pessimistic and that the fundamentals are starting to show signs of life.

Jeremy also provides a market outlook, reacting to Ed Yardeni's call that the market bottom is in. While Jeremy agrees a bottom is possible due to the recent relentless selling, he warns that a major escalation in Middle Eastern conflicts or oil prices spiking to $150-$170 per barrel could trigger a new wave of panic. On the economic front, he discusses the impact of AI on jobs, citing Oracle's layoffs as a negative indicator, while noting that healthcare remains a structural growth area due to the aging baby boomer generation.

Nike (NKE): Jeremy is extremely bullish on Nike despite being down significantly, viewing the $40 price range as 'stupid' and irrational. He points to a 20% year-over-year growth in the core running business and signs of a revenue inflection point in China as evidence that the turnaround is working. He predicts that his current $158,000 position will grow to over $400,000 within the next 24 months as the market eventually recognizes the brand's recovery.

Oracle (ORCL): Jeremy reacts critically to the news of over 500 layoffs at Oracle's Kansas City operations. He explicitly disputes the claim that the company has a 'strong' balance sheet and expresses concern over the 'negative loop' created when high-paid corporate workers lose their jobs. He views these layoffs more as a sign of economic tightening than a simple strategic shift toward AI.

S&P 500 (SPY): Jeremy discusses the potential for a market bottom, noting that the S&P 500 has already seen significant correction. He suggests that unless there is a 'new level of panic' driven by energy prices or war, the lows may hold. However, he maintains a neutral stance, acknowledging that a major escalation could easily push the NASDAQ down 20% or more from its highs.

Mentioned Stocks

NKE

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Jeremy believes the stock is irrationally cheap at $40 and predicts his $158,000 position will exceed $400,000 within 24 months. He highlights that Nike's running business is up 20% year-over-year and that the China market is showing a clear inflection point toward recovery. He compares the current negative sentiment to past successful turnarounds he invested in, such as Meta and Tesla.

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ORCL

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Jeremy expresses skepticism regarding Oracle's strength, specifically disputing the claim that they have a strong balance sheet following news of significant layoffs in Kansas City. He views the job cuts as a negative economic signal rather than a positive strategic pivot.

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SPY

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Jeremy acknowledges the possibility that the market bottomed recently but remains cautious. He states that a further decline is possible if there is a major escalation in the Middle East or if oil prices rise to $150-$170 per barrel.

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