I'm going to sell it all
Summary
Jeremy provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market volatility, noting that the NASDAQ is down nearly 10% and the Dow Jones has lost 5,000 points. He dismisses the 'bubble' narrative of the previous year, suggesting that the market is now dominated by recession worries and geopolitical concerns, specifically referring to 'rod wave' drama and rising CAPEX. He evaluates the economy through money velocity, which is currently in an uptrend, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which has recently begun to expand slightly. While consumer sentiment is at 'disaster' levels, Jeremy views this as a potential floor for the market.
A significant part of Jeremy's thesis relies on massive infrastructure spending as an economic driver. He points to the construction of data centers by companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, as well as the TSMC facility in Arizona, as major sources of direct and indirect job creation. He also monitors new housing starts as a critical indicator, noting some recent quarterly improvement. Jeremy suggests that when the market 'snaps back,' the recovery will be significant because many high-quality stocks are currently trading near 52-week lows.
Jeremy is shifting his portfolio strategy by liquidating his TSLZ hedge to move into long positions. He notes that mega-cap tech stocks have reached very attractive valuation levels that make them difficult to push much lower. He concludes by urging investors to maintain an 'abundance mentality' and exercise patience, as even the best investors experience periods without new portfolio highs.
Stocks mentioned include:
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Jeremy expresses interest in buying more Nike, though he mentions he is currently satisfied with his position size in his public account. He considers it a good value at these levels.
Reasoning: With a forward P/E of 26, Jeremy categorizes Amazon as a 'screaming deal' in the current market environment for those with a long-term outlook.
Reasoning: Meta is trading at a 19 forward P/E despite revenue growth rates exceeding 20%. Jeremy considers this a very attractive valuation for long-term holders.
Reasoning: Jeremy explicitly mentioned buying shares this morning. He views it as a core focus for reinvestment due to the current market weakness providing a strong entry opportunity.
Reasoning: Jeremy plans to buy more shares as the stock is trading near 52-week lows. He views it as a prime candidate for a massive snapback when market conditions improve.
Reasoning: The stock is attractively priced with a forward P/E of 21 and strong revenue growth of 15-20%. Jeremy believes it is difficult for the market to push this high-quality stock lower.
Reasoning: Jeremy intends to allocate significant capital to Adobe, viewing the current price as a strategic long-term entry point during this period of market drama.
Reasoning: Jeremy already took big profits on a batch of shares recently and plans to liquidate the remaining position on Monday to move funds into long stock positions.