Explosive Move Incoming‼️
Summary
Jeremy's main thesis is that the current market is 'unhealthy' because, despite the indices being at or near highs, over 70% of stocks in the Russell 3000 are down double digits from their peaks. He describes a 'K-shaped' economy where AI and semiconductor infrastructure plays are booming while consumer-facing stocks are struggling. Jeremy believes the upward trend will continue as long as the 'big four' (Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and Broadcom) do not break, noting that their earnings growth remains robust for the foreseeable future.
Jeremy predicts a potential 'painful' scenario where the market rips higher through the summer, potentially pushing the S&P 500 toward 8,000 (referencing analyst targets), only to have a significant correction in October or November. He emphasizes that money will eventually rotate out of high-flying tech and into consumer stocks once interest rates fall and economic confidence returns. Regarding the 'Quantum' trade, Jeremy views it as too early for serious investing, though it may be a valid short-term trading play.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: While the CEO predicts shortages through 2026, Jeremy is cautious due to the company's cyclical history. He warns that massive capacity expansion coming online around 2028 could coincide with a demand slowdown, leading to crashing margins.
Reasoning: Included in Jeremy's public account and cited as one of the few stocks currently at 52-week highs, showing strength in the current market environment.
Reasoning: Jeremy notes Nvidia's dominance and its massive weight in the S&P 500. He believes it will continue to smash earnings for the next several years, though it will likely be the first to fall when the AI trade eventually reverses. He references Dan Ives' view of a $6T to $7T market cap potential.
Reasoning: Jeremy holds AMD in his public account and expects a massive boom cycle in CPUs and significant market share gains in GPUs over the next few years. He mentions a potential valuation target of $2 trillion to $5 trillion.
Reasoning: Jeremy reacts to Dan Ives' bullishness on IBM's Quantum and AI turnaround. However, Jeremy remains skeptical about investing in Quantum technology right now, stating it is still in the 'warm-up' phase and not yet ready for long-term investing.