This Is The Craziest IPO Ever

Joseph Carlson After Hours•May 21, 2026

Summary

In this analysis, Joseph breaks down the shocking IPO filing for SpaceX (SPCX), which targets a $1.5 trillion valuation. He highlights that while the company's financials—$18.7 billion in revenue and a $4.9 billion loss—are inferior to companies like Netflix, investors are paying for 'optionality.' This includes Starlink's expansion into mobile, AI data centers, and the integration of XAI and Starship. Joseph notes a massive but cancellable $1.25 billion monthly deal with Anthropic and critiques the filing's 'delusional' $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM). He expects the IPO to succeed primarily due to a tiny 4-5% share float and high demand from institutional ETFs.

Joseph also reviews recent earnings from Nvidia and Intuit. While Nvidia posted record cash flow, Joseph is concerned about increasing competition from 'hyperscalers' like Google and Amazon. Regarding Intuit, Joseph explains his decision to sell his entire stake, citing the CEO's unconvincing dismissal of AI threats and the company's heavy seasonality. He concludes by critiquing Trevor Noah's suggestion to abolish quarterly earnings, arguing that transparency is essential for investor protection and does not hinder long-term growth, as evidenced by Amazon and Costco.

SpaceX (SPCX): A high-valuation IPO characterized by immense technological optionality, absolute control by Elon Musk, and a very small public float likely to drive prices up despite weak current financials.

Nvidia (NVDA): Reported record-breaking free cash flow of $50 billion in one quarter, though Joseph notes investors are starting to look at secondary players as big tech competitors develop internal chips.

Intuit (INTU): Joseph sold his position following a disappointing earnings report where he felt AI was significantly pressuring the company's pricing power in the tax-prep market.

Amazon (AMZN): Joseph allocated 50% of his Intuit sale proceeds here, viewing it as a premier long-term success story of the public market system.

Meta (META): Joseph allocated 30% of his Intuit sale proceeds here as part of his portfolio reallocation into high-conviction growth stocks.

S&P Global (SPGI): Joseph allocated 20% of his Intuit sale proceeds here to diversify his portfolio with a stable financial services giant.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN

Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Joseph deployed 50% of the proceeds from his Intuit sale into Amazon, citing it as an example of an incredible service created by a public company that delivers long-term value and infrastructure.

Loading chart...